Afternoon Delight: Growing the MLS; Part I: Expansion

By Andrew Stoltzfus at February 1, 2012 | 11:30 am | Print

It is quite obvious that the MLS is still a growing league, both in size and global importance. It is also quite obvious that every fan, critic, and blogger has their own opinion on what path the league should take to get to it’s ultimate form, whatever it may be. Well, here I am to add my opinion to the debate. Through a series of articles I will look at the possible ways that the MLS can grow.

I will preface this with a disclaimer though: I am in no way an expert. I don’t have insider knowledge. I do not claim to be a fortune teller or own a DeLorean with the capability to travel through time. This is purely for your enjoyment. So…enjoy.

Part I: Expansion

All the complaints about the schedule are moot until the league finally gets to its desired size and in turn all schedules until then are merely temporary. The real question is what is the magic number? The league has talk extensively about the 20th team, but has not said that is the end of the growth. When trying to predict this magic number it is important to try and figure out how many games the league wants to have. The current 34 game season falls a little under the average number of games a season when comparing to the European leagues, but the MLS has recently spoken as if playoffs should be considered when speaking on the season length. If this is the case, a team that makes it to the MLS Cup will play 38 games (39 if they are a wildcard) which is right in line with that international number. I see the league standing up to the pressure of USMNT boss Klinnsman for the simple fact that in 4 years time, he probably won’t be around, and they will. So if I were to put my money on an ultimate league size, I would say 24. That would mean two conferences of 12. Each conference opponent would be played home and away (22 games) and half the other conference would be played at home (6 games), the other half away (6 games), with those switching every year. That would keep the total games at 34 and would allow teams to still play 2 or 3 international friendlies, which have become popular throughout the league.

The Contenders

Getting from 19 teams to 24 is the next step in this process. There are some pretty clear rules when it comes to MLS expansion: 1. New York City will have a second team in the future without a doubt. 2. The Pacific Northwest is exhausted. 3. The Southeast is a market that needs to be tapped. 4. NASL seems to be the path to the MLS instead of brand new teams. 5. Natural rivalries are always key. With those in mind my list of the 15 markets that are in the running for teams 20-24 are:

1. New York City
   -The league has not hidden it’s desire to have a second team in NYC. It only has to be decided what ownership wins the race. Cosmos has to be the favorite, but the league can only wait so long for them to get their act together. It’s a huge market and creates some natural rivalries.
2. Las Vegas
   -A very intriguing city to have a professional team. While there would be no other professional sports teams to compete with, it is still unknown how Vegas residents would support a pro team. There are some obstacles as to stadium location with gambling law, but I think Vegas is a strong option.
3. Orlando
   -MLS has flirted with the ownership of the current Orlando City Soccer Club, but there has to be that lingering feeling in the back of MLS’s minds that they’ve tried this and it didn’t work. Orlando could give MLS the chance to return to Florida, but in a new location, but Orlando is a small market.
4. Tampa Bay
   - Rebranding the current NASL team after the old NASL team has to be seen as a push for MLS to take notice. With the wave of former NASL team names making their way into the top tier of American soccer once again, the Tampa Bay Rowdies have a better shot than the Tampa Bay Mutiny would. Still not a top 50 US city by population standards could be the stumbling block here.
5. Miami/ Fort Lauderdale
   - Same marketing ploy as in Tampa, but taking it a step further. Taking Miami out of name completely and going back to the Fort Lauderdale Strikers has dropped all homage to the failed Miami Fusion. The top 50 market would fit in line with the current MLS mold.
6. San Antonio
   -A large market in soccer rich Texas, San Antonio would have natural rivals in FC Dallas and Houston. The problem here is much the same as it is in New York; too much infighting. If San Antonio can get on board with either the Scorpions of the NASL or the Spurs organization they will have a much better opportunity to land that MLS franchise.
7. Carolina
   -The current NASL Railhawks have built a franchise with a winning image. They could be well on the way to creating a large fan base. The real problem would fall on the current location of the team. Cary, North Carolina is right outside Raleigh which falls outside the top 50 populous US cities. The MLS would be much more interested if the team were located in Charlotte, a top 20 city.
8. Atlanta
   -Newcomers to the NASL last year, this franchise has an eye to the future. They even have their own stadium with practice fields, an indoor arena, and plans to expand the stadium. In their first year in the league they outdid most of the other teams in attendance. Could Atlanta be the Southern soccer hotbed the league and USSF has been looking for? Most critics point to the failed NHL franchise (Thrashers) as a sign that MLS might not work in the region.
9. Ottawa
   -Not far from the US border, over 1 million in population, and could be a natural rival with Montreal. While it could be a positive, the close proximity to Montreal could also be a negative. How willing are Canadians to flock to the sport?
10. Quebec
    -Another possible rival for Montreal. The two teams could fight for the title of best team in “French” Canada. Quebec could find itself hurting when it comes to travel the same was Vancouver does. It remains to see if MLS wants to expand outwards or add teams to the area it already encompasses.
11. Calgary
    - The fifth largest city in Canada would add a second Canadian team to the Western Conference. It’s large population and natural rivalry with Vancouver would make it favorable, while it’s distance from other teams might put it at a disadvantage
12. Phoenix
    -The USSF seems to really be pushing Phoenix as a place for soccer. The USMNT and USWNT have played multiple friendlies and have trained there often. While it is a huge market, it doesn’t even have a USL or NASL franchise yet. There could be a genuine lack of interest from the area that cripples any possible MLS expansion.
13. San Diego
    - The California soccer landscape is crowded at the moment making expansion a far fetched dream. However, the possibility of relocating an existing franchise is an idea worth exploring. A team like Chivas USA could move closer to Mexico, maybe making it more fashionable for Mexican youth to move there to enter an academy. It could also be the US’s chance to fire back against Tijuana who has been trying to encourage American youth talent to ply their trade south of the border.
14. Minnesota
    - Another NASL franchise that is positioning itself to be a desirable location for MLS. Located just north of the Twin Cities (St. Paul and Minneapolis have a combined population of over 600,000) the stadium that calls Minnesota Stars FC home has drawn more than 15,000 for a USWNT game and could expand if needed. While the weather could be harsh for outdoor soccer, it is an untapped area for MLS.
15. St. Louis
    - There has been a lot of talk about MLS in St. Louis, but the city has not gotten serious about its aspirations to join the US soccer community. With a city population outside the top 50, St. Louis would have to build a soccer culture that shows promise in either USL or NASL before the MLS would take it seriously.

Narrowing down the field

Let’s not kid ourselves, New York will be getting a second team. So there goes one of the 5 spots. Houston will move to the Western Conference to allow for multiple meetings between the Texan teams a season. That leaves two more spots in each conference. To be seen as a truly national league the MLS will want to return to the Southeast. This time I don’t think it will be two teams in Florida. One will be the Atlanta Silverbacks. It is an organization that has their act together. MLS will like that they own their own stadium, they have a growing fan base even at the second tier, and it is a decent sized market. MLS will return one team to Florida however, and it will be between Miami and Tampa Bay. Both have rebranded themselves and are playing towards their histories before the MLS franchises. It will come down to which team has the better stadium situation, the biggest attendance, and most secure ownership.

When it comes to the Western Conference there are two places I think are frontrunners for MLS expansion. San Antonio is a top 10 city in terms of population and would create a nearly perfect triangle with Houston and Dallas. The three cities could form a rivalry as bitter as that of the teams in the Northwest. If the MLS franchise turns out to be the Scorpions or Spurs will depend on who wins out on the power battle going on in the city. The Spurs have had their dreams dented by losing the proposed stadium deal, but the Scorpions should realize that the two organizations would be more powerful together than fighting against each other. Calgary would be a great location for the fourth Canadian franchise. It would expand the MLS’s reach across Canada a little further and expand the area of the Western Conference. This may be the place to build the MLS’s first completely indoor stadium. Having four teams in Canada would also make the Canadian version of the US Open Cup much more credible.

The future of US soccer is still unknown, in the future it could become a much more popular sport beyond what anyone could image. Who’s saying that there couldn’t be an MLB style 30 team format? Sir Alex Ferguson said that the United States was large enough to house two leagues if the sport grew in popularity. Could you imagine an MLS West and an MLS East? The possibilities are endless when it comes to what could happen to soccer in the US. Only time will tell.

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